Why Culture Power is vital to Grand Strategy
Culture power is the charisma and identity of your grand strategy, the intangible force that inspires loyalty, attracts allies, and shapes perceptions. In football, it’s the equivalent of a club’s brand—its history, values, and appeal to fans worldwide. For a state, culture power amplifies influence far beyond its borders, creating soft power that attracts rather than coerces. Without culture power, a grand strategy lacks the spirit to inspire and the finesse to persuade.
2025 Results:
- EU (453.86) - Collective soft power
- USA (402.36) - Hollywood, English language
- Germany (399.5) - Solid performer in education, science and tourism
- UK (331.98) - English, Premier League, BBC | +6.5%
- Japan (298.75) - Anime, tech brands
- China (315.19) - TikTok, but censorship limits | +83.8%
Critical Crossover:
- China > Russia (2005)
- UK maintained lead over France
- Germany approaching USA
KEY INSIGHTS: CULTURE POWER SMART POWER (1991-2025)
THREE CULTURAL EPOCHS:
- 1991-2005: American Cultural Unipolar Moment
- Hollywood dominance (80% global box office), CNN/MTV global reach, hip-hop/pop music export.
- Russia's cultural collapse (brain drain, funding cuts), China's cultural awakening (WTO entry, film industry grows).
- 2005-2015: China's Cultural Offensive
- Beijing Olympics (2008), Confucius Institutes (200+), Mandarin learners (100M+).
- USA's soft power decline (Iraq War, Abu Ghraib, financial crisis).
- Germany's rebranding (2006 World Cup, Berlin as startup hub).
- 2015-2025: Populist Backlash & Polarisation
- USA: Trump era damages soft power ("America First," Muslim ban, Jan 6). Hollywood "woke" backlash.
- China: Censorship limits appeal (Xinjiang, Hong Kong), but TikTok/tech culture exports surge.
- EU: COVID cultural collapse (-35% in 2020), Brexit blow, but heritage resilience.
- Russia: Ukraine war cultural cancellation (-21% since 2006 peak).
THUCYDIDES CULTURAL TRAP ASSESSMENT:
⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: USA'S CULTURAL HEGEMONY ERODING
- USA vs. China (Gap Narrowing):
- 1991: USA led China by 221.94 points (+129% advantage).
- 2025: USA leads China by 87.17 points (+28% advantage).
- Gap Closure: 134.77 points (61% reduction in 34 years).
- Projection: China overtakes USA in culture by 2035-2040 if current trends persist.
- But: Censorship (Xinjiang, Hong Kong) may cap China's peak (authoritarian culture export limit).
- EU's Collective Advantage:
- EU always led USA (1991-2025), despite Brexit, COVID shock.
- 2025 Gap: EU 453.86 > USA 402.36 (+51.50 points, +13% advantage).
- Why: Collective soft power (28 countries), multilingualism, heritage diversity (UNESCO sites 50% of global total).
HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS:
- British Empire (1815-1914): English language, literature (Dickens, Shakespeare), global education (Oxford model) → cultural hegemony sustained empire post-military decline.
- France (1650-1815): French language (diplomacy), cuisine, fashion, philosophy (Voltaire, Rousseau) → cultural prestige outlasted military defeats (Seven Years' War, Napoleon).
- USA (1945-2025): Hollywood, jazz/rock/hip-hop, blue jeans, Coca-Cola → "Coca-colonization" sustained hegemony post-Vietnam War. Peak ~2000 (Friends, Titanic, MTV), decline 2015-2025 (Trump, polarization).
CHINA'S SOFT POWER DILEMMA:
- Strengths: Scale (1.4B people), diaspora (60M globally), economic pull (BRI scholarships), tech culture exports (TikTok, Temu, Shein).
- Weaknesses: Censorship (Great Firewall), authoritarianism (Xinjiang camps, Hong Kong crackdown), language barrier (Mandarin vs. English), "wolf warrior" diplomacy alienates.
- Precedent: USSR had cultural exports (ballet, chess, literature), but authoritarianism capped appeal → collapse 1991.
USA'S SOFT POWER CRISIS:
- Polarisation: Red vs. Blue culture war → exports "chaos" narrative (Jan 6, election denial, Supreme Court).
- Hollywood Decline: Streaming wars fragment audience, China market censorship (Top Gun: Taiwan flag removed), "woke" fatigue.
- Language Advantage Endures: English as global lingua franca (1.5B speakers) → USA's moat vs. China's Mandarin (1.1B, but limited outside diaspora).
Key Insights:
- China: Top winner (+143.73 pts, +83.8%) via Olympics, TikTok, tech exports
- Russia: Biggest loser (-46.49 pts, -20.1%) - brain drain, cultural boycott
- USA: Soft power crisis - polarization, Hollywood decline
- Gap: USA's lead over China narrowed from +129% (1991) to +28% (2025)
Cultural influence: The soft power attraction
Cultural metrics account for 10% of the total score, reflecting the growing importance of what Joseph Nye termed "soft power"—the ability to attract rather than coerce.
Culture is a decisive force multiplier in Smart Power: it expands a nation’s reach, shapes global preferences, and reinforces legitimacy without coercion.
These metrics capture the full spectrum of cultural influence.
Patent applications (5%) by residents indicates innovation capacity and intellectual property generation. China now leads with over 1.5 million annual applications, followed by the United States with approximately 600,000. This metric identifies nations driving technological and commercial innovation. Source: WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization)
Scientific journals (10%) measure the creative and knowledge-production ecosystems that underpin long-term cultural prestige. Source: Scimago Journal & Country Rank / Elsevier Scopus
University rankings (5%) capture the global authority, attractiveness and intellectual influence of a nation’s higher education sector. World-class universities act as engines of elite formation, soft-power diffusion and research leadership. Countries that dominate international rankings shape global norms, attract future decision-makers, and set the cultural and scientific agenda for decades. This metric tracks the reach and reputation of a nation's knowledge institutions—one of the most durable assets of cultural power. Source: QS World University Rankings
Tertiary enrolment (10%) represent the international attractiveness and capacity of a country’s educational institutions—critical channels through which ideas, norms and elites circulate. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS)
International tourist trips (25%) quantify real-world cultural appeal: the willingness of global citizens to experience a nation’s lifestyle, heritage and soft-power identity. Source: UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Cultural Output Index (45%) measures the commercial reach of a nation's creative industries. China has emerged as the leading exporter at over $60 billion annually, followed by the United States. This metric tracks the global penetration of a country's cultural products, from music to fashion to literature. Source: Constructed from UNCTAD Creative Economy, UNESCO cultural trade data, and COMTRADE export categories (creative goods and services)
Cultural power has gained prominence as information flows have accelerated. The ability to shape narratives, export values, and establish norms has become increasingly valuable in a connected world where influence often depends more on attraction than coercion.
Where Are You in the Culture Revolution of the Day?
The culture revolution of our time is driven by creativity, global connectivity, and the ability to shape narratives. As a manager, are you building a legacy and a loyal fanbase through your club’s ethos, or are you a fleeting success with no lasting impact? For states, this means asking whether you lead in producing cultural exports, innovating creatively, and setting trends that others follow. To dominate the culture revolution, a state must shape global preferences and perceptions, just as a football club must build a reputation that transcends the pitch.
Where Are You in the Culture Cycle of the Day?
Cultural influence, like a football club’s global appeal, follows cycles of rise, zenith, and decline. Are you in a golden era of cultural production and export, or are you resting on past glories while challengers redefine the game? States that invest in cultural industries and innovation maintain relevance, much like clubs that consistently refresh their squads and tactics. Falling behind in the culture cycle is like being overtaken by a younger, more dynamic team—fans and influence shift elsewhere.
What Hybrid Culture Wars Are Challengers Setting as Traps for You?
Challengers exploit smart wars targeting culture power to erode your influence and project their own. These traps are like rival clubs launching marketing campaigns to poach your fanbase:
- Cultural Appropriation: Rivals adopt and modify your cultural symbols to weaken their association with you, much like a club copying your tactics to dilute your uniqueness.
- Narrative Domination: Challengers shape global narratives to discredit your culture, akin to opponents controlling media narratives to question your legitimacy.
- Tourism Diversion: Competitors invest heavily to redirect international tourism flows, just as rival clubs invest in stadiums and experiences to attract fans away from you.
- Trademark and IP Theft: Rivals exploit your innovations without credit, akin to a team stealing your academy-developed players without proper compensation.
These traps aim to reduce your cultural power, undermine your soft power advantage, and erode global recognition of your values.
What Is the Smart Power Solution?
Culture smart power is about creating, protecting, and amplifying cultural assets:
- Lead in the Culture Revolution: Invest in creative industries, protect intellectual property, and promote cultural exports to dominate global preferences. Just as a football club builds its brand through memorable performances and fan engagement, a state must craft an identity that resonates worldwide.
- Balance the Culture Cycle: Innovate to stay relevant while respecting and modernising traditions. Like a club refreshing its squad while honouring its legacy, this ensures both continuity and dynamism.
- Counter Hybrid Culture Wars:
- Protect cultural symbols and intellectual property through international agreements.
- Shape global narratives by investing in media and education that highlight your cultural strengths.
- Develop unique tourism experiences to sustain and grow your appeal.
- Foster cultural exchanges to build goodwill and expand influence, much like a club forging partnerships with global academies.
Smart power in culture means turning your values and creativity into tools of influence, ensuring that your identity shines on the global stage.
How Do We Measure Culture Power?
Culture power is measured by assessing a state’s capacity to produce, export, and attract global attention through cultural assets. These metrics provide a quantitative and qualitative view of cultural influence, much like a football club’s fanbase, merchandise sales, and global reach reflect its brand strength. Strong cultural metrics indicate a state—or team—capable of shaping preferences and inspiring loyalty, while weak metrics signal fading relevance.
Conclusion: The Charisma of Grand Strategy
Culture power is the charisma and identity that amplifies your grand strategy’s reach and resonance. Understanding your position in the culture revolution and cycle,
countering the hybrid culture wars set by challengers, and deploying smart power ensures your values and creativity become global assets. Just as a football club thrives by building a legacy and inspiring fans, a state succeeds when its culture becomes a beacon of influence and attraction. Without culture power, a strategy lacks soul. With it, it shapes the world.
