Why State Power Is Vital to Grand Strategy
State power is the central playmaker in your grand strategy, orchestrating the seven revolutions of Smart Power. Just as a football team depends on its midfield to maintain possession, control the tempo, and connect defence with attack, a state depends on its institutional strength to maintain stability, ensure effective governance, and uphold legitimacy. Without state power, the rest of your grand strategy collapses, as a team without a strong midfield is easily overrun.
2025 Results
- Canada (823.93) - Stable institutions, high trust
- Japan (833.96) - Rule of law, consensus governance
- Germany (830.17) - Federal democratic strength
- UK (740.69) - Brexit institutional chaos | -10.5%
- USA (641.67) - Polarisation crisis | -17.6% ⚠️⚠️
- Russia (396.13) - Autocratic collapse | -4.2%
Critical Crossover:
- China overtook Russia (1997),
- India > Russia (2002)
- France/EU/UK > USA (2009-2022)
KEY INSIGHTS: STATE POWER SMART POWER (1991-2025)
THREE STATE POWER EPOCHS:
- 1991-2001: Western Institutional Supremacy
- Liberal democracy triumphant, "End of History" narrative.
- Russia collapses, China stable but authoritarian.
- 2001-2015: 9/11 & Global Financial Crisis Erode Western Legitimacy
- War on Terror, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo degrade US rule of law.
- 2008 crisis → Occupy, austerity, populism seeds planted.
- China's authoritarian state capitalism appears resilient.
- 2015-2025: Populist Backlash & Democratic Crisis
- Trump, Brexit, January 6, Supreme Court crisis → USA state power collapses -17.6%.
- UK Brexit chaos -10.5%, EU sovereignty battles -7.8%.
- China's authoritarian model gains legitimacy (+13.6%), but Hong Kong/Xinjiang repression, Zero-COVID failure show brittleness.
THUCYDIDES STATE POWER TRAP ASSESSMENT:
⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: HEGEMONIC TRANSITION IN STATE LEGITIMACY
- 1991: USA had 340.92 point lead over China in state power.
- 2025: USA's lead shrunk to 144.70 points (58% gap closure).
- Projection: China overtakes USA in State Power by 2035-2040 if current trends persist.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SMART POWER:
- USA's Achilles Heel: Economic/military power remain strong, BUT state power (governance legitimacy) is collapsing.
- China's Gamble: Authoritarian efficiency vs. succession crisis risk (no mechanism for post-Xi transition).
- Wildcard: If USA experiences constitutional crisis (contested election 2024/2028, political violence), state power could drop below 600 → China overtakes by 2030.
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT:
- Late Qing Dynasty (1839-1912): Military defeats + institutional decay = collapse despite economic size.
- USSR (1985-1991): Gorbachev's reforms exposed institutional rot → 6-year implosion.
- USA (2015-2025): Polarisation, Jan 6, SCOTUS legitimacy crisis → fastest state power decline of any hegemon (-17.6% in 34 years).
Key Insights:
- USA's State Power collapse: -17.6% since 1991 (Gini inequality, Freedom House score drop, Jan 6 Capitol attack)
- All Western democracies declined except Canada
- China's State Power rise: +13.6% (authoritarian efficiency)
- USA-China gap: Reduced by 58% - China projected to overtake USA by 2035-2040
State power: The administrative foundation
At 10% of the total, state power metrics may seem modest, but they capture essential characteristics of governance effectiveness and territorial scale.
- State government effectiveness (30%): draws on World Bank measurements of bureaucratic quality, policy implementation capabilities, and public service delivery. Nations like Singapore, Switzerland, and the Nordic countries consistently score highest, demonstrating that good governance is not merely a Western phenomenon but a universal benchmark of state capacity. This metric identifies states that can efficiently translate resources into outcomes.
- Democracy (20%): the Freedom in the World Index evaluates Political Rights and Civil Liberties, which relate to aspects of governance, policy implementation, and government accountability.
- Strong institutions (25%): Political stability and the absence of violence indicate the state’s ability to maintain order, manage unrest, and control security threats. It’s an important reflection of the resilience and legitimacy of state institutions.
- Factionalised elites (15%): The Factionalized elites indicator considers the fragmentation of state institutions along ethnic, class, clan, racial or religious lines, as well as and brinksmanship and gridlock between ruling elites. The higher the value, the more fragmented are the institutions in the country.
- The state GINI index (10%): measures income inequality within societies, with lower scores indicating more equal distribution. Nations like Slovenia (24.6), Czech Republic (25.0), and Slovakia (25.2) demonstrate that greater equality correlates with social cohesion and political stability. Conversely, high inequality in countries like South Africa (63.0) and Brazil (53.9) often correlates with social tensions that limit effective power projection.
State effectiveness might seem a modest component at first glance, but without administrative capacity and social cohesion, other forms of power become difficult to mobilize effectively. Even wealthy nations with strong military capabilities can be undermined by weak governance or deep societal divisions.
Where Are You in the State Revolution of the Day?
The state revolution of our time focuses on governance, accountability, and institutional effectiveness. As a leader, are you running a well-organised team with clear roles, or is your squad fragmented, riddled with inefficiencies, and losing control of matches? In state terms, this means asking whether your institutions are stable, effective, and trusted. Are you setting the rules of the game, or are you struggling to maintain order while challengers exploit weaknesses? Leading the state revolution requires modernising governance, ensuring policy credibility, and building trust among your people. Anything less risks being outplayed on and off the field.
Where Are You in the State Cycle of the Day?
Every team and every state has its ups and downs. Are you in a phase of institutional strength and high morale, or are you entering a period of instability and erosion? States, like teams, can overreach—attempting to manage too much at once without the administrative capacity to back it up—or they can become stagnant, failing to reform outdated systems. A state in its zenith can project strength globally, just as a dominant midfield controls the game, but a state in decline invites challenges and risks collapse, much like a team whose midfield is bypassed by opponents.
What Hybrid State Wars Are Challengers Setting as Traps for You?
Challengers target state power through smart wars designed to destabilise and delegitimise institutions. These traps are like opposition managers exploiting gaps in your team ethos:
- State Subversion: Rivals back separatist movements or fuel internal unrest, similar to exploiting discord within a team to disrupt its cohesion.
- Propaganda and Disinformation: Challengers spread misinformation to undermine trust in your institutions, akin to unsettling a team with rumours about players or the manager.
- Judicial Manipulation: Rivals use legal and political tools to discredit your leadership, much like referees unfairly penalising your team with dubious decisions.
- Cyber Attacks on State Infrastructure: These are the tactical fouls of modern statecraft, disrupting your flow and eroding public confidence in your ability to govern.
These traps weaken your state power, reducing your ability to implement policies and maintain authority, much like a broken midfield allows the opposition to dominate the game.
What Is the Smart Power Solution?
State smart power is the solution, combining institutional resilience with proactive governance strategies:
- Lead in the State Revolution: Modernise institutions, improve transparency, and strengthen the rule of law. Just as a well-drilled team ensures you can play cohesively, a strong state ensures that all elements of power work in unison.
- Balance the State Cycle: Avoid overextension by focusing on governance reforms and maintaining stability. Like rotating your midfielders to keep them fresh, a state must reform incrementally to avoid burnout or backlash.
- Counter Hybrid State Wars:
- Build resilience against disinformation campaigns with clear, proactive communication strategies.
- Strengthen internal cohesion through inclusive policies that reduce the appeal of separatist movements.
- Bolster cybersecurity to protect critical state infrastructure.
- Expose and counter judicial manipulation with international alliances and institutional safeguards.
These measures ensure your state power remains strong and adaptable, much like a versatile midfield that can adjust to any opponent’s tactics.
HOW DO WE MEASURE STATE POWER?
State power is the playmaker of your grand strategy, controlling the flow, maintaining stability, and connecting all elements of national strength. Success depends on understanding where you stand in the state revolution and cycle, anticipating the hybrid state wars set by challengers, and deploying smart power solutions to outmaneuver them. A strong state represents the quality of a dominant team’s backroom organisation —when it performs well, the whole team thrives. Without it, your strategy falters, and the opposition takes control.
State power is best measured by metrics that capture its ability to maintain stability, ensure effective governance, and uphold legitimacy. These metrics reflect how well the team governance connects all elements of power—military, economic, diplomatic, and cultural—to create a cohesive and effective strategy.
