Why People Power Is Vital to Grand Strategy
People power is the talent pool of your grand strategy, embodying the quality, innovativeness, and education of your population. Just as a football team’s success depends on the skill, fitness, and teamwork of its players, a state’s ability to thrive and compete in the global arena relies on its people. People power drives productivity, innovation, and adaptability—the key ingredients for long-term success. Without it, even the best strategy is like a team with great tactics but no players to execute them.
2025 Results
- China (489.17) - Demographic peak passed, aging crisis
- India (425.21) - Youngest, fastest-growing | +36%
- EU (385.48) - Aging population, high HDI
- Japan (373.40) - Extreme aging crisis
- USA (357.25) - Immigration-sustained, polarised
Critical Crossover:
- India overtook USA (2009),
- India > Japan (2014)
- India overtakes China (2028-2030 projected)
KEY INSIGHTS: PEOPLE POWER SMART POWER (1991-2025)
THREE DEMOGRAPHIC EPOCHS:
- 1991-2001: Post-Soviet Collapse & Liberalisation
- Russia's catastrophic demographic decline (healthcare collapse, alcoholism).
- India's liberalisation → HDI improvements, middle class expansion.
- China's WTO entry prep, urbanisation begins.
- 2001-2015: Demographic Dividends (China & India)
- China's manufacturing boom → urbanisation → HDI surge.
- India's IT boom → education expansion → rising life expectancy.
- Japan/Europe's aging becomes crisis (below-replacement fertility, immigration tensions).
- 2015-2025: China's Peak, India's Ascent
- 2015: China's working-age population peaks, then declines (one-child policy consequences).
- 2023: India overtakes China as world's most populous country.
- 2025: India closing gap (China 489.17, India 425.21, gap 63.96). Projected crossover 2028-2030.
THUCYDIDES DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP ASSESSMENT:
⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: INDIA'S OVERTAKE OF CHINA IMMINENT
- 1991: China led India by 108.73 points (35% advantage).
- 2025: China leads India by 63.96 points (15% advantage).
- Gap Closure: 41% in 34 years.
- Projection: India overtakes China in People Power by 2028-2030.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SMART POWER:
- China's Achilles Heel:
- Demographic collapse is irreversible (even 3-child policy fails—births plunged 10% in 2023).
- Aging crisis: 400M over age 60 by 2035 (29% of population), pension system unsustainable.
- Workforce shrinkage: -35M workers by 2030 → manufacturing competitiveness erodes.
- India's Demographic Dividend (But Time-Limited):
- Peak window: 2025-2040 (working-age 68% of population).
- Challenge: Convert numbers into quality (education gaps, healthcare, jobs).
- Risk: "Demographic disaster" if job creation fails (youth unemployment 23% in 2023).
- USA's Immigration Advantage:
- Only major power sustaining workforce growth via immigration.
- But: Political polarisation threatens immigration (Trump's border policies, "replacement theory").
- Japan/Europe's Terminal Decline:
- Japan: Population 100M by 2050 (down from 128M), median age 53 (oldest globally).
- Germany/Italy: Below-replacement fertility (1.5, 1.2), immigration backlash.
HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS:
- Tang Dynasty China (618-907 CE): Population growth → "Golden Age" → census 755 CE shows 53M (world's largest) → An Lushan Rebellion → population 17M by 764 CE → dynasty never recovers.
- Roman Empire (27 BCE - 476 CE): Peak population 70M (2nd century CE) → Antonine Plague (165-180 CE) → population 50M by 300 CE → workforce shortages → barbarian settlements → collapse.
- Japan (1989-2025): "Lost Decades" → aging + low birth rates → labour shortages → GDP stagnation → GDP per capita growth 0.8% (vs. USA 1.5%) → relative power declines despite high HDI.
CHINA'S TRAJECTORY MIRRORS JAPAN'S:
- Japan's Peak: Working-age population peaked 1995 → "Lost 3 Decades" followed.
- China's Peak: Working-age population peaked 2015 → 10 years in, GDP growth slowing (5.2% in 2023 vs. 10% in 2010).
- Projection: If China follows Japan's path, GDP growth 2-3% by 2035 → overtake of USA delays to 2040s (or never).
Key Insights:
- India: +112.66 pts (+36%) - demographic dividend 2025-2040
- China: Working-age population peaked 2015, total population decline since 2022
- Japan/Germany/Italy: Aging catastrophe (-0.2% to -0.5% annual decline)
- Russia: Demographic collapse (-60% brain drain, -10% population since 1991)
People power: Human capital and demographics
10% of the smart power score derives from metrics related to population quality and quantity—the human resources that ultimately drive national capabilities.
- The share of youth not in education, employment, or training (5%) measures unutilized human potential. Low scores in countries like the Netherlands (4.2%), Japan (4.4%), and Germany (5.7%) contrast with concerning levels in nations like Turkey (28.7%), Italy (23.1%), and Brazil (22.8%). This "NEET" indicator reveals how effectively societies incorporate their youth into productive activities.
- Life expectancy (25%) serves as a proxy for overall health system performance and quality of life. Japan (84.7 years), Switzerland (84.0), and Singapore (83.9) lead this metric, while the United States lags surprisingly at 76.4 years despite its wealth. This indicator captures both healthcare effectiveness and broader social determinants of health.
- Human capital index (10%) measures workforce quality through education, skills, and health. Finland (0.81), Singapore (0.80), and Japan (0.80) demonstrate exceptional human resource development on the World Bank's 0-1 scale. This metric identifies nations that have successfully translated population into productive capacity.
- Raw population size (60%) acknowledges the fundamental importance of demographic scale. China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) enjoy enormous potential purely through numbers, though this potential must be effectively harnessed through other metrics to translate into actual power.
People power metrics recognize that ultimately, national capabilities derive from human beings—their numbers, health, skills, and productive engagement. Even wealthy nations face challenges if their populations are aging, declining, or failing to develop appropriate skills for the modern economy.
Where Are You in the People Revolution of the Day?
The people revolution focuses on education, skills, and health—the factors that turn populations into productive, innovative, and resilient workforces. As a manager, are you nurturing world-class players through your academy system, or are you stuck with untrained and uninspired talent? For states, this means building human capital: Are you leading in education and skill development, or are you falling behind while others invest in their workforce? To win in today’s revolution, a state must equip its people to compete globally, just as a team must prepare its players for top-tier competition.
Where Are You in the People Cycle of the Day?
Every team goes through cycles of growth, maturity, and renewal, and so does a population. Is your workforce young, dynamic, and expanding, or ageing, shrinking, and unprepared for modern challenges? A country with a youthful, well-educated population is like a team with promising academy graduates ready to step up. Conversely, an ageing workforce with high youth unemployment is like a team where older players are slowing down and no replacements are coming through. Recognising your position in the cycle allows you to adjust your strategy—either nurturing new talent or adapting to a more experienced but slower squad.
What Hybrid People Wars Are Challengers Setting as Traps for You?
Challengers exploit smart wars targeting people power to weaken states by disrupting their human capital and societal cohesion. These traps are like opposition teams targeting your weakest players:
- Brain Drain: Rivals attract your brightest minds with better opportunities, akin to top clubs poaching your best academy graduates.
- Economic Inequality: Widening disparities erode social cohesion, much like infighting within a team undermines performance.
- Youth Unemployment: High levels of joblessness among young people create frustration and instability, like a squad with talent sitting idle on the bench.
- Health Crises: Poor health systems and life expectancy reduce productivity, similar to players being sidelined by injury due to inadequate medical support.
These traps destabilise your society, erode trust in institutions, and sap the energy needed to drive growth and innovation.
What Is the Smart Power Solution?
People smart power involves nurturing, protecting, and maximising your population’s potential:
- Lead in the People Revolution: Invest in education, training, and healthcare to ensure your people are skilled, healthy, and ready to innovate. This is your academy system, producing players who can compete at the highest level.
- Balance the People Cycle: Adapt to demographic changes by preparing younger generations while creating opportunities for older workers to remain productive. Like managing a squad with a mix of youth and experience, this ensures continuity and resilience.
- Counter Hybrid People Wars:
- Retain talent by creating opportunities at home, offering competitive wages, and fostering innovation.
- Reduce inequality through fair policies that build social cohesion, ensuring every "player" feels valued.
- Address youth unemployment by aligning education with market demands, turning your bench into a source of strength.
- Strengthen health systems to improve life expectancy and productivity, keeping your team fit for the long game.
Smart power means turning challenges into opportunities and ensuring your population is an asset, not a liability.
How do we measure People Power?
Understanding your position in the people revolution and cycle, countering traps set by challengers, and deploying smart power ensures your population becomes a competitive advantage. Just as a football team thrives when its players are skilled, fit, and motivated, a state succeeds when its people are educated, healthy, and united. Without people power, there is no game to win. With it, the possibilities are endless.
