Why Military Power Is vital to Grand Strategy
Military power is the defensive backbone and counter-attacking force of your grand strategy, crucial for protecting sovereignty and projecting influence. Just as a football team cannot dominate without a solid defence and the ability to counterattack, a state cannot secure its position in the League of Nations without a strong military. Military power ensures that your strategy is credible, deters challengers, and provides the hard edge to enforce your goals.
The 2025 results
- USA (276.70) - Global dominance unchallenged | -20% since 1991
- China (164.60) - PLA modernization accelerates | +11%
- India (157.00) - Rising regional power | +107%
- Russia (147.80) - Catastrophic decline | -45% ⚠️
- UK (48.29) - Post-empire contraction | -20% ⚠️
KEY INSIGHTS: MILITARY SMART POWER NARRATIVE (1991-2025)
Three Military Epochs:
- 1991-2001: Post-Cold War Unipolar Moment
- USA's military unchallenged (Gulf War 1991, Kosovo 1999)
- Russia collapses into Third World military
- China begins quiet modernisation (Taiwan Strait Crisis 1996 wake-up call)
- 2001-2015: War on Terror / China's Rise
- USA bleeds in Iraq (2003-2011) and Afghanistan (2001-2021)
- China overtakes Russia (2000), closes gap with USA
- India's nuclear tests (1998) + economic growth fuel military expansion
- 2015-2025: Multipolar Military Competition
- USA's relative decline continues (-20% from 1991 peak)
- China emerges as peer competitor (hypersonics, carriers, A2/AD)
- India rises to #3 (overtaking Russia by 2017)
- Europe rearms slowly (Ukraine War 2022 catalyst)
Military Score Projections (2025-2030):
- USA: 276.70 → 292.80 (maintains #1, but stagnant growth)
- China: 164.60 → 170.56 (+3.6%)
- India: 157.00 → 167.18 (+6.5%) ← Fastest growth
- Russia: 147.80 → 174.38 (+18%) ← IF Ukraine War ends by 2026
Thucydides Military Trap Assessment (2025):
- USA's Military Over-extension:
- 750+ overseas bases (cost: $200B/year)
- Recruiting crisis (Army missed 2023 goal by 15,000)
- China's A2/AD could deny access to Taiwan/South China Sea
- China's Military Vulnerabilities:
- Untested in modern combat (last war: Vietnam 1979)
- One-child policy creates "little emperor" conscripts
- Amphibious assault on Taiwan would be D-Day-level difficulty
- India's Wild Card:
- If India-China border war erupts, USA would face strategic choice:
- Back India → two-front war for China
- Stay neutral → Quad alliance collapses
- Russia's Desperation:
- If Ukraine War goes badly, Putin could escalate to tactical nukes
- NATO Article 5 untested against nuclear power
War Probability (2025-2035):
- Taiwan Strait: 35-40% (China's 2027 PLA modernisation deadline)
- India-China Border: 20-25% (Ladakh standoff could flare)
- NATO-Russia: 10-15% (Ukraine War spillover risk)
- Korea Peninsula: 5-10% (North Korea collapse scenario)
Historical Parallel: 1914 (Thucydides Trap + alliance entanglements + rising power impatience = Great War)
Key Insights:
- Critical Crossover: India overtook Russia (2017) - reversing centuries of hierarchy
- USA: Despite -20% cut, still 68% larger than China militarily
- Russia: Ukraine War (2022) exposed paper tiger - military score predicted disaster
- China-India Gap: Closing rapidly (164.60→157.00 = only 7.6 pts)
- UK/France: Military parity, both declining sharply
Military might: The hard edge of smart power
Accounting for 20% of the total smart power score, military metrics represent the traditional "hard power" core that remains essential in an anarchic international system. The five metrics in this category capture both destructive potential and global force projection capabilities.
- Nuclear arsenal (15%) remains the ultimate guarantor of sovereignty in the modern era. The exclusive club of nuclear powers—the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea—possess a form of influence that non-nuclear states simply cannot match. Russia and the United States still maintain vast arsenals of approximately 5,800 and 5,500 warheads respectively, dwarfing China's estimated 410, though Beijing is rapidly expanding its capabilities.
- Military arms exports (15%) indicate not just industrial capability but also geopolitical relationships and influence. The United States dominates this field with 37% of global arms sales, followed by Russia at 20% and France at 11%. These exports create dependencies, build alliances, and project power well beyond a nation's borders.
- Military spending as a percentage of GDP (15%) reveals commitment to defence regardless of absolute economic size. Saudi Arabia (8.4%), Israel (4.7%), and Russia (4.1%) lead this metric, compared to the United States (3.5%) and China's official figure of 1.7% (though experts believe the real number is higher). This metric identifies nations that prioritize defence even when economically constrained.
- Military expenditure in absolute terms (50%) favours large economies, with the United States spending nearly $900 billion annually, followed by China's estimated $225 billion. This measure captures actual force generation capacity regardless of relative economic burden.
- Armed forces personnel (5%) measures human capital dedicated to military purposes. China leads with approximately 2 million active-duty personnel, followed by India with 1.4 million and the United States with 1.3 million. This metric captures the scale of deployable forces, though not necessarily their quality or technological sophistication.
The military dimension remains indispensable in a world where coercive force—or the credible threat thereof—continues to shape international outcomes. As Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine demonstrate, military power can still override other forms of influence in specific contexts, even as it generates costs in other dimensions.
Where Are You in the Military Revolution of the Day?
As a manager, are you playing the modern game, or are your tactics stuck in the past? In military terms, this means assessing whether your forces are equipped for the challenges of today. Are you leading in technological innovation, integrating cyber capabilities, and mastering asymmetric warfare, or are your tactics predictable and easily countered? Just as football has moved from rigid formations to fluid systems, modern militaries must evolve from conventional armies to multi-domain forces that excel across land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. Staying ahead in the revolution is the difference between dictating the play and chasing the ball.
Where Are You in the Military Cycle of the Day?
Every team has its peaks and rebuilds, and militaries are no different. Are you at the top of your game, with an experienced and well-funded squad, or entering a phase of overreach, where ageing equipment and overstretched resources make you vulnerable? A strong military at its zenith can dominate the field, but overcommitment—like playing your best striker in every match without rotation—leads to exhaustion and decline. Knowing whether you’re in a phase of momentum, overreach, or retrenchment is crucial to planning your next move.
What Hybrid Military Wars Are Challengers Setting as Traps for You?
Your rivals are not playing by the old rules. Challengers today exploit smart wars—unconventional strategies that avoid direct confrontation but weaken your position. These traps are like aggressive pressing tactics designed to disrupt your flow:
- Asymmetric Warfare: Rivals deploy irregular forces, guerrilla tactics, and proxies to drain your resources, much like a smaller team exploiting counterattacks against a dominant side.
- Cyberwarfare: Attacks on your systems and communications resemble fouling your key playmaker to disrupt the team’s rhythm.
- Technological Leapfrogging: Rivals innovate in AI, drones, or hypersonic weapons, akin to a team mastering cutting-edge tactics that your defence cannot counter.
- Proxy Conflicts: Your opponents create regional instability, forcing you into costly, resource-draining interventions, just as a rival manager distracts you by exploiting a weak flank.
These smart wars aim to stretch your defence thin and expose vulnerabilities without engaging in a full-scale conflict.
What Is the Smart Power Solution?
The solution lies in military smart power, combining defensive resilience with strategic counterplay:
- Lead in the Military Revolution: Invest in emerging technologies, modernize your forces, and ensure you dominate in new domains like cyber and space. This is how you stay tactically ahead, dictating the game instead of reacting.
- Balance the Military Cycle: Avoid overreach by focusing on sustainability, much like rotating your squad to keep it fresh for critical fixtures. A balanced force can handle multiple challenges without burning out.
- Counter Hybrid Wars:
- Develop asymmetric countermeasures to neutralize irregular threats.
- Strengthen cyber defences, ensuring your communications and strategies remain secure.
- Innovate faster than your rivals, using their leapfrogging against them.
- Support proxies strategically, ensuring you play the proxy game better than your opponents.
Smart power isn’t just about building a strong defence—it’s about using your resources intelligently to outmanoeuvre and outlast challengers.
Military power is your defence and counterattack—without it, your grand strategy lacks credibility and security. Like a football manager, you must balance investment in your defensive backbone while ensuring your squad remains deep, adaptable, and capable of responding to challenges. With a solid defence (personnel), a star player (nuclear deterrent), and a well-managed budget, you can dictate play in the League of Nations, deterring rivals and protecting your lead on the global stage.
