Why Is Diplomatic Power Vital to Grand Strategy?

Diplomatic power is the captaincy of your grand strategy, leading your team on and off the pitch, building alliances, and ensuring cohesion. In football, the captain embodies the voice of the manager, forging relationships with referees, motivating teammates, and influencing the game’s flow. Similarly, in the international arena, diplomatic power secures alliances, resolves conflicts, and amplifies influence. Without strong diplomacy, even the most talented squad—or state—lacks unity, direction, and the ability to shape the broader game.

2025 Results: 

1. China (98.76) - BRI, BRICS expansion, Global South 
2. USA (98.41) - First time behind China since 1945 ⚡⚡ 
3. France (95.70) - UNSC permanent member 
4. UK (92.88) - Commonwealth, "special relationship" 
5. Germany (91.29) - EU diplomatic weight 

Diplomatic reach: The power of relationships 

At 5% of the total, diplomatic metrics might appear modest but reflect a nation's formal engagement with the international community. 

• The diplomatic power index (95%) Influence in international organisations and membership of treaties. Source: KOF Globalisation Index
• Lowy Institute Index (5%) measures a country's global network of embassies, consulates, and permanent missions. This network enables information gathering, relationship building, and influence projection across the globe. Source: Lowy Institute

Diplomatic infrastructure enables nations to advocate for their interests, build coalitions, and shape international norms. Even militarily modest powers like France maintain outsized diplomatic influence through extensive networks and skillful engagement. 

Critical Crossover: China overtook USA in 2024 (98.49 vs. 98.47) 

KEY INSIGHTS: DIPLOMACY POWER SMART POWER (1991-2025) 

THREE DIPLOMATIC EPOCHS: 

1. 1991-2005: American Unipolar Diplomatic Dominance 

• USA leads NATO, UNSC, G8, WTO. "New World Order" → "Washington Consensus." 
• China builds network (WTO 2001, SCO 2001, Africa diplomacy), but USA dominant. 
• Russia isolated (NATO expansion, G8 junior partner). 

2. 2005-2017: China's Diplomatic Rise 

• China overtakes Japan, Germany, UK, Italy (2004-2017) → diplomatic network rivals USA. 
• Financial crisis (2008) → G20 replaces G8 as primary forum (China's elevation). 
• BRIC (2013) → 150+ countries sign MOUs. AIIB (2015) → 57 founding members (including US allies: UK, Germany, France). 

3. 2017-2025: Trump Disruption & Chinese Overtake 

• USA: Trump withdrawals (Paris, Iran deal, TPP, UNESCO) damage alliances. Biden rebuilds (NATO, QUAD, AUKUS), but Afghanistan withdrawal, Israel-Gaza crisis constrain. 
• China: Saudi-Iran détente (2023), BRICS expansion (2023), Ukraine neutrality gains Global South. Overtakes USA (2024) → first time since 1945. 
• France: Declines (African losses, AUKUS humiliation). USA overtakes France (2023) → reverses 1991-2022 French lead. 

 THUCYDIDES DIPLOMATIC TRAP ASSESSMENT: 

⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: CHINA'S DIPLOMATIC OVERTAKE COMPLETED (2024) 

1. China > USA (2024 Crossover): 

• 1991: USA led China by 7.90 points (+9% advantage). 
• 2024: China 98.49 > USA 98.47 (China leads by 0.02 points). 
• 2025: China 98.76 > USA 98.41 (China leads by 0.35 points). 
• Significance: FIRST TIME SINCE 1945 CHINA LEADS USA IN DIPLOMACY → Hegemonic diplomatic transition. 

2. China > France (2023 Crossover): 

• 1991: France led China by 9.99 points (+11% advantage). 
• 2023: China 98.21 > France 96.70 (China leads by 1.51 points). 
• 2025: China 98.76 > France 95.70 (China leads by 3.06 points). 
• Significance: China now leads ALL UNSC permanent members except... NONE (China #1 globally). 

3. USA > France (2023 Reversal): 

• 1991: France 98.99 > USA 96.90 (France led by 2.09 points). 
• 2023: USA 98.53 > France 96.70 (USA leads by 1.83 points). 
• Why: Biden's alliance rebuilding vs. France's African collapse, AUKUS humiliation. 

4. Diplomatic Power Concentration (Top 3): 

• 2025: China 98.76, USA 98.41, France 95.70. 
• Gap China-France: 3.06 points (top 3 within 3% of each other). 
• Gap China-India (11th): 12.64 points (13% spread top to bottom). 
• Implication: Diplomacy is zero-sum (UNSC seats fixed), top powers cluster tightly. 

 HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS: 

1. British Empire (1815-1945): "Balance of power" diplomacy (Concert of Europe), imperial network (colonies as diplomatic leverage) → sustained hegemony post-military decline (WWI casualties). 
2. USA (1945-1991): Bretton Woods (IMF, World Bank), NATO, UN creation → institutional hegemony. Peak diplomacy: 1991 (Gulf War coalition, Soviet collapse) → decline 2003 (Iraq War unilateralism) → Trump nadir 2017-2020. 
3. China (2001-2025): WTO entry (2001) → gradual integration → BRI (2013) → AIIB (2015) → BRICS expansion (2023) → overtakes USA (2024). "Peaceful rise" (Jiang Zemin 1997) → "Chinese Dream" (Xi Jinping 2012) → "Community of Common Destiny" (2017). 

CHINA'S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY: 

• Institutional Parallel Construction: 
• AIIB (challenges World Bank) 
• BRICS (challenges G7) 
• SCO (challenges NATO) 
• BRI (challenges US-led development model) 
• Global South Alignment: 
• Ukraine neutrality (refuses to condemn Russia) → 100+ countries abstain UN votes (India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia). 
• Debt diplomacy (BRI loans $1 trillion 2013-2023) → Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Zambia defaults → "debt trap" criticism, but also leverage. 
• "No Limits" Partnerships: 
• Russia (February 2022, pre-Ukraine war) 
• Saudi-Iran détente (March 2023) 
• North Korea support (food, oil) 

USA'S DIPLOMATIC VULNERABILITIES: 

• Trump's Legacy Damage: Withdrawals (Paris, Iran, TPP) → allies no longer trust US commitments (fear 2024 Trump return). 
• Israel-Gaza Crisis (2023-2024): 30,000+ Palestinian casualties → Global South alienated. UN votes: USA isolated (140 countries vote for ceasefire, USA vetoes). 
• Debt Ceiling Crises: 2023 standoff → S&P downgrade warning → credibility damaged.  

🚨 FINAL VERDICT: THUCYDIDES TRAP REACHED IN DIPLOMACY (2024) 🚨 

China has overtaken the USA in diplomatic power for the first time since 1945. This marks a historic hegemonic transition in the international order. Combined with: 

• Economic crossover imminent (2028-2030) 
• Military gap narrowing (China 60% of USA's military power by 2025) 
• Energy dominance established (China leads USA by 21%) 

The conditions for the Thucydides Trap are NOW PRESENT across multiple Smart Power dimensions.  

Key Insights: 

• India: Top winner (+14.13 pts, +19.6%) - G20, Quad, Non-Aligned leadership 
• France: Top loser (-3.29 pts, -3.3%) - EU fragmentation 
• China's rise: Belt & Road (150+ countries), BRICS (+6 members), Saudi-Iran détente 
• USA's stumbles: Trump withdrawals, Afghanistan chaos, Gaza crisis 

Where Are You in the Diplomatic Revolution of the Day?

The diplomatic revolution of our time focuses on multilateralism, global governance, and soft power. As a manager, you must ask: are you the captain that referees respect and teammates rally around, or are you sidelined, struggling to influence the game? For states, this means leading in international organisations, shaping global norms, and acting as a broker in crises. To dominate the diplomatic revolution, a state must build coalitions and project leadership, just as a football captain inspires and organises the team.

Where Are You in the Diplomatic Cycle of the Day?

Diplomatic influence, like a captain’s leadership, follows cycles of prominence and decline. Are you a trusted voice in global governance, or are you losing credibility and relevance? States at their diplomatic zenith shape international agendas, much like a strong captain dictates the tempo of the game. Conversely, states in decline are ignored in key decisions, akin to a captain who loses the dressing room and becomes ineffective. Understanding your position in the cycle enables you to rebuild relationships or consolidate your leadership.

What Hybrid Diplomatic Wars Are Challengers Setting as Traps for You?

Challengers exploit smart wars targeting diplomatic power to isolate states and weaken their ability to build alliances. These traps are like opponents undermining your captain’s authority to destabilize your team:

• Diplomatic Isolation: Rivals work to exclude you from key international forums, much like players lobbying referees to sideline your captain.
• Alliance Undermining: Competitors exploit divisions within your alliances, akin to sowing discord in your dressing room to weaken team morale.
• Leadership Delegitimisation: Challengers question your credibility in international organisations, just as rivals might cast doubt on a captain’s leadership.
• Narrative Shaping: Rivals manipulate global narratives to paint you as unreliable, much like stirring controversy about a captain’s decisions to destabilize the team.

These traps reduce your diplomatic power, limiting your ability to influence global decisions and weakening your position on the world stage.

What Is the Smart Power Solution?

Diplomatic smart power is about building alliances, projecting credibility, and leading with confidence:

• Lead in the Diplomatic Revolution: Strengthen your presence in international organisations, take on leadership roles, and shape multilateral agendas. Like a captain who builds strong relationships with referees and teammates, a state must position itself as a trusted and effective leader.
• Balance the Diplomatic Cycle: Rebuild alliances and repair trust where it has eroded. Just as a captain must resolve disputes in the dressing room, a state must mend fences and foster cohesion within its coalitions.
• Counter Hybrid Diplomatic Wars:
  • Prevent isolation by expanding your diplomatic network and maintaining strong bilateral ties.
  • Strengthen alliances through shared goals and mutual support, ensuring unity in the face of external pressure.
  • Defend your leadership by highlighting successes and showcasing integrity, much like a captain proving their worth through actions on and off the pitch.
  • Shape global narratives by investing in public diplomacy, using media and cultural exchanges to build goodwill.

Smart power in diplomacy is about positioning yourself as the indispensable leader, much like a captain whose influence is felt both on the field and in the locker room.

How Do We Measure Diplomatic Power?

Diplomatic power is measured by a state’s ability to secure membership, leadership, and influence in international organizations. These metrics reflect how effectively a state builds alliances, shapes global governance, and amplifies its voice in multilateral settings. Like a football captain’s influence on the pitch—measured by leadership decisions, team cohesion, and interactions with officials—diplomatic power captures a state’s ability to lead and unify.

Conclusion: The Captaincy of Grand Strategy

Diplomatic power is the captaincy of your grand strategy, forging alliances, resolving conflicts, and amplifying influence. Understanding your position in the diplomatic revolution and cycle, countering the hybrid wars set by challengers, and deploying smart power ensures your state becomes a leader in global governance. Just as a football captain ensures the team stays united, motivated, and respected, diplomatic power ensures a state remains a trusted and influential voice in the world. Without it, you’re sidelined. With it, you lead the game.